USA - Early 2021 Storm Season Prediction Is in: You May Not Want to Read What It Says
While even the author of the forecast acknowledges we're still far away from the season's start, he predicts a pretty high chance of an above-normal hurricane season.
The hot-blooded 2020 hurricane season is less than a month in its grave, but there’s already a prediction that 2021 will conjure another year of tropical excess.
Colorado State University, which has issued seasonal hurricane forecasts for 38 years, said global climate patterns and atmospheric humors are leaning toward a 65 percent chance of an above-normal 2021 season.
Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the annual qualitative discussion on the hurricane season that begins June 1, acknowledges that predictions six months in advance are dubious, but that large scale events can offer some insight.
The beefy La Niña that appeared in September is expected to last at least through March, and rarely does a moderate-to-strong La Niña flip quickly to an El Niño with enough influence to squelch a hurricane season.
“That loads the dice toward active,” Klotzbach said. “The business of seasonal forecasting is all based on odds.”