TX - Social inequalities in climate change-attributed impacts of Hurricane Harvey
Climate change-induced impacts of Hurricane Harvey: To determine the relative share of flood impacts during Hurricane Harvey attributable to climate change, we calculated climate change-attributed depths and damages using scenarios that compare the flooding that actually occurred to scenarios of flooding with less precipitation (i.e., flooding without climate change).
- Kevin T. Smiley,
- Ilan Noy,
- Michael F. Wehner,
- Dave Frame,
- Christopher C. Sampson &
- Oliver E. J. Wing
Climate change is already increasing the severity of extreme weather events such as with rainfall during hurricanes. But little research to date investigates if, and to what extent, there are social inequalities in climate change-attributed extreme weather event impacts. Here, we use climate change attribution science paired with hydrological flood models to estimate climate change-attributed flood depths and damages during Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. Using detailed land-parcel and census tract socio-economic data, we then describe the socio-spatial characteristics associated with these climate change-induced impacts. We show that 30 to 50% of the flooded properties would not have flooded without climate change. Climate change-attributed impacts were particularly felt in Latina/x/o neighborhoods, and especially so in Latina/x/o neighborhoods that were low-income and among those located outside of FEMA’s 100-year floodplain. Our focus is thus on climate justice challenges that not only concern future climate change-induced risks, but are already affecting vulnerable populations disproportionately now.
Climate change can increase the intensity of extreme weather events such as the amount of rainfall associated with tropical storms and cyclones. Climate change can therefore worsen the impact of these events and may do so in unequal ways. Indeed, research has already separately identified unequal social vulnerabilities in flood risks regardless of climate change1,2,3,4, and increasing flood risks from climate change5,6,7,8. But, not much has been done to connect these two insights. Specifically, climate change’s precise role in shaping unequal social impacts now is not yet well-understood6. This is our focus here, where we combine extreme weather event attribution (to climatic change) research together with spatial quantitative social research.
This type of event attribution seeks to determine how the meteorological and environmental characteristics for specific extreme weather events that have already occurred were shaped by anthropogenic changes to the climate5,9,10,11,12,13,14. As such, it sheds light on how climate change has affected both the likelihood and the intensity of these events. A new strand of this work now melds extreme weather event attribution with hydrological models to estimate the spatial imprint of these events’ impacts 15,16.
While this growing work on attribution disentangles climate change’s role in extreme weather hazards, no research to date analyzes if and to what extent these impacts of the increasing hazard link to pre-existing social inequalities. Here, we build on social science work identifying inequalities in disaster impacts that invokes oft-cited, but little-tested hypotheses about increasingly severe and frequent disasters because of climate change. To do so, we empirically assess the increased severity of disaster impacts because of climate change by focusing on the distribution of these climate change-attributed impacts across different social groups. To do so, we synthesize data on climate change attribution, hydrological flood models, hazard maps, and socio-spatial characteristics of neighborhoods and land parcels in Harris County, Texas during Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
In this work, we first examine the extent to which flooding of residential buildings from Hurricane Harvey could be attributed to climate change16. Then, using multivariable econometric regression models, we assess what social and demographic factors are associated with these climate change-induced impacts, thereby carrying out an original analysis of inequalities in climate change-attributed impacts of extreme weather events. Our analysis is based on a census of approximately 1.1 million residential land parcels located within 795 census tracts (i.e., neighborhoods) in Harris County, Texas—the largest county of the Houston metropolitan area that was among the hardest-hit areas by Hurricane Harvey17,18,19.