FL - Tracking the Tropics: How accurate are hurricane season forecasts?

The second week of the 2021 hurricane season is underway and the National Hurricane Center is already monitoring another area for possible tropical development.

TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — The second week of the 2021 hurricane season is underway and the National Hurricane Center is already monitoring another area for possible tropical development.

The area currently being watched is in the southwestern Caribbean Sea near Central America. The NHC has dropped the chance for development down to 10% over the next five days and says “significant development of this system appears unlikely,” however, it will bring torrential flooding rains to northern Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua.

Long-range forecast models that go out 10 days continue to forecast a system somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. However, these longer-range models are much lower in accuracy, especially 10 days out, so that’s something to check back in on but not something to worry about.

The next named storm to develop will be given the name Bill. The first named storm, Ana, already formed northeast of Bermuda before the season began.

Experts are predicting another year of above-normal tropical activity, but what exactly does that mean?


Read more.